Fuel Prices: War economics keep costs high despite congressional shift

Experts told Dallas County Herald readers that drivers should not expect immediate relief at the pump following the midterm elections. Although Democrats have secured a majority in both chambers of Congress, the structural issues causing high fuel costs are global in nature and will not resolve automatically with a change in political leadership.

The cost of fuel has risen sharply since the conflict in Iran began. A barrel of Brent crude oil traded at approximately $70 in late February. It then spent several months near $110 before settling closer to $95. According to AAA data, the average price of a gallon of gasoline is now $4.12, which is about $1 more than it was a year ago. Diesel prices reached a record high of $6.52 per gallon in September. While that figure has dipped slightly, the current price remains roughly $2.50 higher than it was at this time last year.

The surge in prices has boosted profits for major oil companies over the past two quarters. It has also increased the cost of goods across the nation, which relies heavily on trucking for distribution. The conflict disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which about one-fifth of the world's oil previously passed. The throttling of this route forced ships to take longer, more expensive detours, driving up freight and insurance costs for the entire industry.

The new Congress does not take office until January. Until then, the administration retains full authority over military actions and sanctions. President Trump has sent conflicting signals about the war's trajectory. He recently warned Gulf Arab nations to prepare for a new military campaign. However, the U.S. struck Qeshm Island, a location Iran uses for its own attacks, on Nov. 2. On election night, the president acknowledged voter dissatisfaction with gas prices. The following day, Vice President JD Vance posted on social media that the war was the reason the administration lost.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stated that Democrats intend to end the war and lower the cost of living. He told reporters on Wednesday that relief is on the way. Claudio Galimberti, chief economist at Rystad Energy, noted that a unified Democratic Congress can make military escalation more expensive. He explained that both chambers can pass resolutions, attach conditions to war spending, and hold back the confirmation of key officials.

Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, countered that the president still holds discretionary power over strikes, blockades, and licenses. Even if a peace deal is reached, the price drop will not be instant. Jaime Brito, executive director of refining and oil markets for Dow Jones Energy, said traders would likely see crude prices fall by $15 to $20 a barrel within two or three days of a formal announcement.

For pump prices to drop, the physical flow of oil must resume. Ships must return to the Strait of Hormuz, and refineries must process the new supply. Brito estimated that it could take three months for gasoline and diesel prices to hit pre-war levels in the most optimistic scenario. León suggested a timeline of six months for crude, followed by one or two months for refined products. Both analysts warned that setbacks could stretch the recovery to a year.

The war in Ukraine adds another layer of complexity. Russia supplies much of the world's diesel. If Ukraine continues to attack Russian refineries, diesel prices may stay elevated longer than gasoline. U.S. refineries are currently running above 90% capacity. An emergency maintenance shutdown or a restart of hostilities in the strait could further delay price drops. Brito noted that the administration might view the period before the new Congress seats itself as a window to complete unfinished military tasks. For prices to normalize, Brito wrote, the market needs to see a definitive end to the conflict.