Israel polls show no clear winner

Israeli voters left the polls without a clear path to a new government. Exit surveys conducted by major television networks show that neither the coalition supporting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor the bloc led by his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot, holds enough seats to form a majority. The results suggest a complex period of negotiations lies ahead.

Voting took place on Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, the Central Election Commission had counted just over one fifth of the ballots. At that point, Netanyahu’s Likud party had secured 23.36% of the vote. Eisenkot’s Yashar party trailed with 15.74%. The commission noted that these early figures did not yet translate into specific parliamentary seat counts.

The election follows a period of intense conflict. The campaign centered on the attacks of October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants killed 1,200 people and took 251 hostages. Most candidates focused on domestic security failures rather than the humanitarian situation in Gaza. Netanyahu rejected a commission of inquiry into those events, blaming the military. His opponents argued he must answer for the security lapses during his tenure.

Polls indicate the parties led by Arab politicians may hold the balance of power. The exit surveys suggested these parties captured the remaining 19 seats in the 120 seat parliament. Netanyahu stated he would not form a government with Arab party support. Eisenkot signaled willingness to work with them under specific conditions, a move that could strain relations with some of his own coalition partners.

Religious divisions also played a role in the campaign. Ultra-orthodox parties, long relied upon by Netanyahu, demanded that exemptions from military service for their members remain in place. Eisenkot, who lost his son and two nephews in combat in Gaza, promised to end those exemptions. Exit polls showed a drop in support for the ultra-orthodox parties, signaling voter dissatisfaction.

Turnout reached 77.7% of eligible voters at the close of polls. This marks the highest participation rate at that time since 1999. It is also more than seven percentage points higher than the turnout at the same stage in the 2022 elections. Final official results are expected by the end of the week.

Neither side currently commands the 61 seats required for a majority. Netanyahu’s bloc appears to have between 50 and 51 seats. Eisenkot’s bloc holds between 51 and 52. If these numbers hold, weeks of coalition talks will follow, or the country may face a repeat election.