Texas Voter Survey Shows 7-Point Democratic Edge for Congress

Registered voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress by a margin of 7 percentage points. The poll, fielded between October 28 and 30, 2026, places Democrats at 52% and Republicans at 45% in the contest for the House and Senate. This advantage is 2 points higher than the result recorded in the previous month’s survey. Three percent of respondents remained undecided, a number that could influence close races across the country.

The survey reveals a historic level of dissatisfaction with the presidency. President Donald Trump’s disapproval rating reached 60%, the highest figure recorded in NBC News polls during his two terms. His approval rating sits at 40%. Nearly three-quarters of voters expressed dissatisfaction with the economic situation as they approach the mid-term elections. For the first time in 30 years of polling, more voters (51%) report being unhappy with their personal finances than those who are satisfied (49%).

Jeff Horwitt, a Democratic pollster with Hart Research Associates, noted that the current political climate contrasts the promises made two years ago with the challenges facing the next two days. He stated that Trump arrived at the White House promising economic prosperity and peace, but voters now express widespread concern over the economy, particularly regarding rising prices during the conflict with Irán. Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster from Public Opinion Strategies, observed that Democrats currently control the agenda for 2026. He pointed out that only voters who prioritize immigration lean toward the Republican Party.

Sixty-four percent of voters, including one-third of Trump supporters, said the president has not met their expectations. Only 34% believe he has. Seventy percent of voters stated the country is on the wrong track, an increase of 9 points from the previous year. Inflation and the cost of living remain the top concerns, followed by government corruption, threats to democracy, immigration, and border security.

A Texas respondent who voted for Trump in 2024 and supports Democrats for Congress this year explained the shift in his voting preference. He said, “The Republicans have proven that they are not to be trusted. That is why I prefer a change in the balance of power to maintaining the control of a single party.” He added that he does not trust either party. This sentiment reflects a broader trend where voters reject the Republican Party without necessarily feeling a strong affinity for the Democrats.

Among Republicans, 53% are dissatisfied with the economic situation, and 37% believe Trump has not kept his promises. Trump retains strong support among self-identified MAGA Republicans, with a 93% approval rating. However, his support has declined among non-MAGA Republicans, where 54% approve of his performance and 46% disapprove. Twenty percent of these non-MAGA Republicans prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress. Trump’s net approval rating has dropped 18 points among white non-college-educated voters since 2025.

The political map presents challenges for Democrats, who must win back districts and states that Trump carried in 2024 to regain control of the Senate. In those states, 53% of registered voters disapprove of Trump’s management, compared to 47% who approve. This is a 10-point drop from March 2025. House Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana holds the highest positive rating among congressional leaders, with 24% favorable and 34% negative. Senate Majority Leader John Thune also maintains a slightly better standing than his Democratic counterparts, largely due to a lack of formed opinions among voters.