Abbott Holds 2-Point Edge in Texas Governor's Race

Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 48% to 46% among Texas registered voters, according to a N+ Univision/YouGov survey conducted Oct. 13-21 among 1,000 registered voters statewide. The poll carries an approximate margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.

The same survey gives Republicans a 48% to 45% advantage on the generic congressional ballot question. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 50% to 45%. All three contests fall within the poll's margin of error. The survey also included a sample of 980 registered Latino voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 points.

The survey's earlier iteration ran Aug. 27 through Sept. 4. Statewide numbers held steady between the two polls, but shifts emerged by age and gender. Among Latino voters aged 35 to 49, Hinojosa's advantage over Abbott dropped from 14 points to 7 points. Her edge with voters aged 18 to 34 barely moved. Abbott's lead among men statewide grew from 6 points to 11 points. In the Senate contest, Talarico's margin among Latino voters under 35 climbed from 27 points to 34 points, while his lead among Latinos aged 65 and older slipped from 13 points to 3 points. Paxton's advantage among voters 65 and older statewide rose from 14 points to 24 points.

Among Latino voters, Hinojosa leads Abbott 52% to 43%, and Talarico leads Paxton 55% to 37%. Democrats hold a 52% to 41% edge on the generic congressional ballot among Latino voters. Regional patterns diverge sharply. In North Texas, Abbott runs about 10 points ahead of Hinojosa among Latino voters and Republicans lead the congressional ballot question by roughly 11 points. In Central Texas, Democrats carry advantages of about 19 to 21 points across all three contests.

Of Latino voters who backed Trump in 2024, 65% say they are comfortable with that choice and would repeat it. Another 13% report some doubts, 10% have serious doubts, and 8% say they regret the vote. Among those expressing doubts or regret, about 34% now support Hinojosa and 44% support Talarico, compared with 5% and 9% respectively among those who would vote the same way again. The poll does not establish a causal relationship between the two measures.

On immigration, 62% of Latino voters say the country should pursue border security and a path to citizenship at the same time, while 29% say border security should be resolved first. Some 56% say law enforcement has gone too far, and 57% report little or no confidence in ICE. On economic questions, 42% of Latino voters say household finances are worse than a year ago, with 63% citing food costs as a source of pressure. When asked to name the single most important issue for their vote, 27% of Latino voters named jobs and cost of living, while 16% named political corruption. The same two issues topped the statewide list at 27% and 15%. Among Latino voters, Democrats lead on 11 of 12 issues measured, including immigration rights at 51% to 27%. Republicans hold a narrow 40% to 38% edge on border security. On data centers, 48% of Latino voters oppose construction in their own communities and 25% support it.

The poll was fielded Oct. 13-21 among 1,000 registered Texas voters.